Sunday, January 25, 2004

Please don't throw us into the briar patch, Br'er Democrats!

I've given some noodle time yesterday and today to the Kerry upset in Iowa.

Republicans, according to some articles posted lately, are unhappy that Dean was squished in the first round. They claim that they would have loved to have taken on the insane, unstable, angry Dean. A cakewalk! A damned shame Kerry is moving forward; he'll be so much harder to beat.

On another front, I'm getting admittedly unverifiable impressions from people on the ground that a very large number of Republicans showed up at votin' time, switched party affiliation, cast ballots, and left.

Now, as Molly Ivins said, Kerry can take the excitement out of a soccer riot. Dean has energized his people as no one else has.

And we have what you can say is a armament problem when it comes to Iraq with Dean, Clark, and Kerry.

Dean said Bush lied about the reason for attacking Iraq from the beginning. As a campaign issue, he can flog Bush's lies with impunity. He's fully locked and loaded.

Clark, although suspicious and questioning from the start of the attack, still is vulnerable to a smear campaign from Bush's media which will paint him as hypocrite and a flipper. Even though the basis for such a lie is vulnerable to refutation by analyzing transcripts, as was done recently to Drudge's fabricated story by such people as Marshall on Talking Points Memo, journalists have grown too lazy to check facts when juicy stories are handed to them fully seasoned. Witness Paula Zahn, who apparently reported on the "story" using the RNC/Drudge fabrications as undisputed source material. Large numbers of people already have swallowed the lie; more will follow. Clark is partially disarmed, his Iraq gun jammed.

Kerry, though a War Hero, yes, yes, caved in to Bush early on in the Iraq propaganda blitz in '92, even though he could have read easily available analyses that refuted Bush's lie factory. He cannot use the Bush Lied to Invade Iraq campaign: he was part of the rush to war. He's totally disarmed. He was complicit. People aren't that stupid, and Rove will spend endless cash reminding people that Kerry was jingoing with the best of the Cheney team.

It's the single biggest campaign issue, and only Dean could have used the gun with impunity. The Republicans, all premeditated statements to the press about wanting Dean to the contrary, were afraid of Dean and the anger of the people who understand exactly how they were had. By bouncing Kerry to the front, they have taken the Democrat's single cannon away from them.

They wanted to be thrown into that briar patch.

Why else flood the caucuses with fake Democrats? Why else constantly tear down Dean with pictures of Dean angry, stories about angry Dean, video of Dean yelling at a pep rally? If they wanted to take Dean on, why try to destroy his electabilty?

They really don't want Clark any more than Dean, but he's a tough nut right now to crack. Kerry is the man they can take on. He lacks charisma on TV; his haircut is odd and dated. One or two smear campaigns and he would have dropped the few points he needed to win the election from Bush.

Rove wants to run against Kerry.